There is a congressional special election in California next week in the district next to mine (CA-10). This election is to fill the vacant seat left by Obama appointee Ellen Tauscher, a Democrat who won her seat in 2008 by +34 percentage points. The Democratic Candidate is the current Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, until recently a possible candidate for Governor who has been in statewide and National politician for over 20 years. I actually think Congressman will be a demotion for him, but it shows just how far the Democrat’s needed to go to win the race. The district leans blue and Obama carried it by +31. The district hasn’t voted republican since 1994. And they need to put up a guy with Statewide recognition to keep it safe.
The Republican challenger is David Hamer. He looks like a fine candidate, but he is not a powerhouse figure by any means. This is his first campaign as I understand it.
But recent polls put the Republican challenger down by 7 points. This district may not swing, but ominous signs are still there. The Democrats put up their best guy and win narrowly instead of by +30. The more moderate districts will swing to Republican in 2010 if this trend holds.
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